HARIANEXPRESS – Europe is facing an intensified campaign of sabotage targeting military and defense sites, with several nations pointing to Russia as the primary suspect.
Germany’s interior minister explicitly blamed Russia for a drone attack at Leipzig airport in August, an incident seen as part of a larger pattern of “Russian hybrid operations.” This wave includes suspicious fires across countries like Italy, Estonia, Slovakia, and Poland, continuing into September.
Europe Targeted by Escalating Sabotage Campaign
Last month, as European politicians were on holiday, Russia reportedly escalated its sabotage campaign across the continent.
This surge in activity specifically targeted military and defense sector sites, marking a notable shift in focus.
A month after drones packed with explosives were found at Leipzig’s airport, used by Ukraine for military transport, Germany’s interior minister stated, “Russia is responsible.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin demands proof, with his officials calling the accusation “absurd.”
However, the drones were just the beginning, as August saw numerous suspicious fires at defense facilities from Italy to Estonia.
While some affected countries blame Russia, others are still investigating, and some fires might eventually be deemed accidental, mirroring the design of such attacks.
“There are many, many signals that Russia is changing its strategy and intensifying its activities, including terrorist and sabotage activities,” said Marcin Kierwiński, Poland’s interior minister, warning people to be vigilant.
August Campaign Across Europe
The campaign in August involved several key incidents:
- August 4, Germany: The first drone was discovered at Leipzig airport.
- August 10, Bulgaria: A significant fire erupted at a warehouse of defense firm EMCO in Tryavna. The company noted previous blasts investigated for Russian links and stated, “Human error is excluded.”
- August 13, Italy: A fire at KNDS Ammo Italy outside Rome caused a large explosion. The local prosecutor is investigating possible outside interference, and a case has been opened for negligent disaster against “unknown persons.”
- August 15, Estonia: The Milrem Robotics factory in Tallinn, which the Kyiv Post says supplies drones to Ukraine, caught fire. Two suspects were arrested. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal confirmed that investigators are “taking seriously” the possibility of Russian sabotage.
- August 25, Slovakia: Police announced they thwarted an arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned drone manufacturer, seizing a “large amount of incendiary mixture.” The firm blamed Russia, and police arrested three suspects who they said were “following orders.”
- August 30, Poland: Two more fires were reported. One at a company producing helicopter components in Lublin, where Prime Minister Donald Tusk said arson “cannot be ruled out.” An attack on drone producer WB Group was clearer, with CCTV showing a masked man throwing incendiary devices. Tusk called it a “continuation of Russia’s escalatory activities.”
The pattern continued into September, with two Bulgarians arrested in Munich, Germany, for suspected arson after throwing incendiary devices at defense firm Rhode & Schwartz from a car.
The August 31 fire at Skarżysko-Kamienna targeted one of Poland’s biggest defense firms.
Why Is This Happening Now?
While attacks on military and defense targets are not new, the current concentration of cases is unusual.
“The intensity of military sites being attacked we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks is unusual,” said Daniela Richterova of the Department of War Studies at King’s College.
Richterova links this surge to developments in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, specifically Ukraine’s actions.
“We’ve basically seen Ukraine take the war to Russia and strike deep inside Russian territory…They [Moscow] are under pressure, they have to do something,” she explained.
Theories Behind the Attacks
One theory suggests the Kremlin’s aim is “coercive signalling,” pressuring countries to halt support for Kyiv by raising the stakes.
Germany, for instance, has become Ukraine’s largest supplier of military aid after a slow start.
Another perspective, from Keir Giles of the Chatham House think tank, is that Russia is less concerned with “turning off the taps” of supplies and more about testing Nato’s weaknesses.
“Russia is probing the boundaries of what’s acceptable and collecting information on the results. They find out what works, and what’s vulnerable,” Giles argued.
He views the campaign as preparation for a “next phase” of Russia’s aggression in Europe.
“They’re assessing the willingness of the victim country to actually do something about it,” Giles added.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) notes a previous surge in 2024 when Ukraine’s allies permitted the use of Western-supplied weapons deeper inside Russia.
In 2024, Russia was accused of sending parcel bombs with liquid explosive to the UK and Poland, with one igniting before being loaded onto a DHL cargo plane.
“That was a marked high in terms of their willingness to inflict mass casualties,” Giles commented, noting the White House intervened to tell the Kremlin to stop.
Despite this, attacks have persisted, with German media quoting a federal police report listing over 165 suspected sabotage cases nationwide this year, without attributing responsibility.
Who Are the Suspected Saboteurs?
Reports from Germany indicate that the individuals who launched the drones at Leipzig’s airport were Russian, and at least one may have specifically entered the country for the operation.
This would be unusual, as most sabotage attacks in Europe have been carried out by Russian proxies, termed “gig economy saboteurs.”
These individuals are typically Russian-speakers from former Soviet states, recruited online for money rather than political beliefs.
The “handlers” are generally believed to remain in Russia, coordinating operations remotely.
The IISS likens these proxies to kamikaze drones: cheap, numerous, and disposable.
These amateurs can be reckless; in the parcel plot, one saboteur failed to locate a pick-up point, leading to the mission’s abortion.
If Moscow deployed professionals for the Leipzig drone launch, it implies a desire for precision and success, although the devices appear to have malfunctioned.
Nato Faced with Soviet-Style Campaign
Russia’s current sabotage operations mirror Cold War tactics, with Daniela Richterova’s research showing similar targets on Soviet sabotage lists and comparable use of agent-saboteurs.
The original intent was to conduct small, deniable peacetime attacks that could escalate during wartime.
“I think we are still in the grey zone between the two, but the kind of attacks we’ve seen in the past weeks shrink that zone,” Richterova observed. “And I think that increases the risk of what happens next.”
As Nato seeks a response, questions remain about how many small, individual attacks constitute a sustained Russian assault requiring action.
The potential for accidental escalation is considered a significant risk, such as if an exploding parcel caused a plane crash or a Leipzig drone brought down an aircraft.
“I think it could result in a big attack,” Richterova stated. “Then Nato, in this heightened security environment, would not be able to ignore that, and have to react.”
