HARIANEXPRESS – Global oil prices settled above US$100 on Thursday, July 24, 2026, for the first time since May, following Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, which intensified global supply disruption concerns. This escalation occurred after a near-halt in trade through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures saw a significant increase of $6.62, or 7 percent, closing at $100.69 a barrel, marking its highest settlement since May 22. These prices are now nearly 40 percent higher than when the Iran war began in February, with the majority of gains recorded this month.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also climbed, closing up $5.36, or 6.2 percent, to settle at $92.19 a barrel. This represented its highest close since June 4.
Yemen’s Houthis initiated a new front in the Iran war by targeting vessels carrying Saudi oil in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, declaring an intention to impose a naval blockade on shipments from Saudi Arabia. The group confirmed on Thursday that it had attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in a military operation.
The Saudi Arabian state news agency (SPA) later corroborated that one of the two vessels caught fire after an assault while sailing in the Red Sea. However, SPA did not specify who attacked the vessel.
“With the possibility of a ground war seemingly increasing by the day, and tanker traffic restricted through two of the most active chokepoints in the world, crude oil is suddenly positioning itself to within striking distance of the four-year high of $126.41, with the global economy drawing down so fast it will eventually be running on fumes,” stated Bob Yawger (director of energy futures at Mizuho).
Analysts from Gelber and Associates noted in a report: “The escalation compounds the near-halt in Hormuz traffic and the sharp reduction in Iranian exports, intensifying concerns over near-term global availability.”
The Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are vital waterways, collectively transporting approximately a quarter of the world’s oil supply. Despite the attacks, shipping data showed that two Chinese supertankers, carrying a combined 4 million barrels of Saudi Arabian oil, successfully exited the Red Sea via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday.
Goldman Sachs projected that Brent crude might surpass $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter and average $100 next year if the strait remains disrupted through 2027. Further upside is expected if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal also experience persistent disruption.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed an oil tanker caught fire after an explosion while attempting to follow a mined route in the southern area of the strait near the coast of Oman, and that two others had turned back. The Guards asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz, declaring it “completely closed” and warning that no tanker would be allowed to enter or leave without coordination with Iran while US actions continued in the region.
US President Donald Trump, in response, promised “major military punishment” for Iran and its Houthi allies.
The reintroduction of a US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports has reportedly halted Iranian oil loadings, which previously stood at 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day. Consequently, loading activity within the Gulf has decreased to 2.5 million bpd over the past seven days, from 6 million bpd over the preceding 30 days, according to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
To bolster global supplies, seven core OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman—are expected to increase their output target by about 188,000 barrels per day for September. This decision is anticipated during their meeting on August 2, even as the ongoing conflict impedes some members from boosting production.
