HARIANEXPRESS – Indonesia’s trade balance is projected to record a US$1 billion deficit in June 2026, an improvement from May’s US$1.61 billion, driven by export recovery and falling global oil prices. (2/8/2026)
This deficit forecast marks an improvement from the US$1.61 billion deficit recorded in May 2026. The projected recovery in exports and a decline in global oil prices are key factors contributing to this positive shift.
Permata Bank attributes the improved trade balance to robust global demand and reduced pressure from oil and gas imports due to lower world oil prices. Head of Macroeconomic and Financial Market Research Permata Bank, Faisal Rachman, highlighted these factors.
“Defisit neraca dagang diperkirakan masih berlanjut pada Juni 2026, namun membaik dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya karena didukung permintaan global yang masih kuat dan penurunan harga minyak dunia,” ujar Faisal.
Exports from Indonesia are estimated to grow by 1.86% year-on-year (yoy) in June 2026, signaling a recovery. This follows a 5.73% yoy contraction observed in May.
Despite the normalization of prices for key commodities like coal and crude palm oil (CPO), international market demand remains solid. This resilience is supported by manufacturing activity in major trading partners.
China’s manufacturing PMI held steady at 50.3, the US reached 53.9, Japan re-entered expansion at 50.1, and India saw an increase to 58.4, the highest in Asia. Furthermore, improved geopolitical conditions in the Middle East are helping to sustain global trade and economic activities.
Conversely, Indonesia’s imports are projected to maintain high growth, with Permata Bank forecasting a 28.66% yoy increase for June 2026. This figure surpasses the 22.16% yoy growth recorded in May.
Although declining oil prices are expected to reduce oil and gas import values, overall import growth persists. This is driven by strong domestic demand and government policies aimed at economic expansion.
Data from China’s trade also indicates a significant rise in its exports to Indonesia during June. This trend further suggests continued high import activity within Indonesia.
Looking ahead, Permata Bank predicts Indonesia’s current account deficit (CAD) will widen throughout 2026. This widening is anticipated as import growth is expected to outpace export expansion.
Exports face several challenges, including the normalization of shipments after accelerated exports last year, weaker demand from China, and uncertainties from geopolitical conflicts and trade wars. Indonesia’s limited participation in the high-value-added semiconductor and AI chip supply chains also restricts potential export benefits.
Permata Bank projects the current account deficit for Indonesia to widen to approximately 1%-2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026. This is a significant increase from around 0.11% of GDP recorded in 2025.
