Expert Highlights Elevated Risk of Megathrust Earthquake in Indonesia

Manawir Gojali
Editor Team

HARIANEXPRESS.com

PADANG, HARIANEXPRESS.COM - An expert has issued a stark warning about the heightened potential for a megathrust earthquake in Indonesia, underscoring the nation's vulnerability along its seismically active fault lines. With the archipelago situated on the Pacific Ring of Fire, such events pose a persistent threat to millions of residents, demanding urgent vigilance and preparedness from authorities and communities alike.

Prof. Fauzan, a prominent figure from the Faculty of Engineering at Andalas University, emphasized that out of Indonesia's 12 identified megathrust segments, two stand out as particularly high-risk zones. These areas, where tectonic plates converge and build immense pressure, could unleash quakes of devastating magnitude if the accumulated energy releases suddenly.

"Of the 12 megathrust segments in Indonesia, two have the highest potential risk," Prof. Fauzan stated, drawing attention to the need for enhanced monitoring and mitigation strategies.

Indonesia's geological profile amplifies these concerns. The country encompasses multiple subduction zones, including those off the coasts of western Sumatra, southern Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, northern Sulawesi, Halmahera, and Papua.

Historical precedents, such as the 2004 Aceh earthquake and tsunami that claimed over 230,000 lives across 14 countries, serve as grim reminders of the scale of destruction possible. More recent events, like the 2018 Sulawesi quake and tsunami affecting 1.5 million people, further illustrate the human toll, with widespread displacement, infrastructure collapse, and challenges in aid delivery.

While experts like those from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) affirm that megathrust quakes are a real hazard—not mere speculation—precise prediction remains elusive due to technological limitations.

Dr. Annisa Trisnia Sasmi, a geophysics researcher at Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta, noted that viral alerts about impending disasters should spur public education rather than panic.

"The threat is not just a rumor; we must take it seriously, but respond wisely without assuming immediacy," she advised.

In response, Indonesia has bolstered its disaster framework over the past two decades. Initiatives include mandatory school drills since 2010, siren systems in vulnerable provinces, and nationwide programs for disaster-resilient infrastructure. The National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB) advocates for holistic approaches integrating risk reduction, sustainable development, and climate adaptation. Deputy Minister Raditya Jayi stressed that "sustainable resilience protects our development gains by investing in preparedness," highlighting coordinated efforts across emergency response and recovery.

Yet challenges persist. Remote areas often face delayed aid due to damaged roads and disrupted communications, as seen in past crises. Prof. Fauzan and fellow experts call for intensified research, community training, and policy reforms to address these gaps, ensuring that Indonesia's progress in mitigation translates into lives saved.

As the nation reflects on tragedies like the 20th anniversary of the Aceh tsunami, the message is clear: awareness and action are paramount in safeguarding against nature's unpredictable fury. For deeper insights into seismic risks, consulting official BMKG updates is recommended.